PAGASA's Forecasts on Franks, Proven Unreliable

On the last weather bulletin of PAGASA before typhoon Frank ravaged the Southern Tagalog region, they insisted that the typhoon will cross the Mindoro-Palawan area, making residents of the region to be assured of their safety.

Hours passed until Frank's strength had been felt over the area. By then, nothing is heard from the local weather bureau about other possible tracks of the typhoon. Electricity were cut down before midnight and residents of Southern Tagalog, partcularly those in Lucena City, where I reside, remained unaware about the looming danger brought about by the typhoon that was about to pass, which is relatively contrasting to the announcements of PAGASA. Before electricity was cut down, Quezon province and nearby provinces remained at signal number 2.

What is irritating over this matter is that two international weather bureaus namely Japan Meteorological Agency and Hong Kong Observatory have predicted the typhoon to pass the Southern Tagalog region during the time that the typhoon was already in Romblon (that was before PAGASA's 5PM weather bulletin, June 21) compared to the Mindoro area which PAGASA expected.

With the local weather bureau's last forecast before electricity went out, residents of Southern Tagalog region went to sleep devoid of any anxiety caused by the approaching typhoon only to wake up early midnight with winds and rains cruelly thrashing and destroying everything on their way. Because of their failure to prepare, many unfortunate residents whose houses have no match for the typhoon was left with no other choice but to leave their place without a "good fight" with the tempest. Roofs flew, houses and belongings were left drenched by rainwater.

The point is, if PAGASA would have announced the possibilty of another track, residents would have been at least given the chance to make a little preparation to save their lives and property. But what they did is to stick to what they see as the most probable track of the typhoon.

I don't know if they mentioned about some possibilities of another track with the media which they might have failed to pay a little attention with; but I guess, if they did, somehow, the media would have warned the public firsthand.

Another thing, given that PAGASA failed to warn the residents of Southern Tagalog region before electricity went off and before they went to sleep, I expected the local government units to have made a house to house announcement of the possibility that the typhoon might cross the region together with some help they could offer if that time comes. [Of course, they would have done something if and only if PAGASA or the National Disaster Coordinating Council alerted the LGUs] But the typhoon came and went, yet I never heard anything from these government agencies - that is, in Lucena; I don't know if other town officials became more responsible.

This is actually strike two for PAGASA, because as far as I recall, with regards to typhoon Mitag, they predicated it to pass the direction of Albay, Quezon and Manila, but it ended up making landfall in Isabela, which, long before the weather disturbance earned a typhoon status, all international weather bureaus as well as international news networks such as CNN and BBC forecasted it to travel the same way as it actually did.

I do not intend to degrade PAGASA, but what I want to say is that if they would have announced other possible paths that the typhoon might trail, residents would have been alerted and necessary preparations would have been created. I would be happier than frightened if they announced that a typhoon will travel right over our place but ends up to other places that waking up with your house unroofed and your property, or worse life of family members gone. By the way, there's no harm with being ready, am I right?

Typhoon Frank to hit LUCENA and MANILA

UPDATED: June 21, 2:00 AM
Note: The next update will be around the morning before noon. CLICK ON THE IMAGES TO SEE THEM CLEARLY.

PAGASA's 11PM forecast yesterday declared that the EYE of typhoon Frank is expected to cross Southern Luzon including the CITY OF LUCENA tomorrow afternoon, pouring its MAXIMUM STRENGTH over the inland waters of Southern Quezon, off to the aforementioned city and eventually the provinces east of Metro Manila.

Frank maintaned its strength to 140 km/h and gustiness of 170 km/h near the center. It is moving at a speed of 19 km/hr and is expected to be in Lucena by 12 noon today. By midnight, Frank would have crossed Manila and would be heading towards the provinces of Northern Luzon.

As forecasts of international weather beaureus claim, residents of southern tagalog region and western parts of the eastern Bicol region are expected to feel the most extreme possible winds and rains of Frank as it crosses the islands toward Metro Manila or, otherwise, Northern Luzon..

The Philippine weather bureau hoisted the provinces of Southern Quezon, Bicol Region, and Metro Manila to SIGNAL NUMBER 3 for the provincial disaster coordinating councils of the respective provinces to initially prepare for the most likely track of the typhoon. [for the updated typhoon warning, visit this website: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/wb.html]

The now-considered "most likely" track is contrasting to the previous forecasts where the typhoon, which made landfall in Eastern Samar, June 20, had been expected to pass the eastern ridge of the archipelago proceeding towards Taiwan and Southern Japan.

Meanwhile, PAGASA mentions that they are still looking for signs on the possibilities for a second scenario of the track of the typhoon, which could otherwise trail the track of Southern Quezon toward Northern Palawan or Mindoro provinces, instead of Metro Manila and Northern Luzon.

For more infos, plese see the following links:

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Pacific_Typhoon_Season

NOTE: This news item and update is restrictive only tothe Southern Tagalog Region. Once the region is officially free from the typhoon, only then will the updates be stopped.

International Forecasts were also considered and analyzed.

DISCLAIMER: The forecast on this weather bulletin may not be COMPLETELY concrete since details were gathered and analyzed through different weather bureaus. Images posted here were taken from websites of the different weather bureaus which freely allows online surferes to be accessed. If this be found illegal, I would be happy to be notified so that I could remove them quickly.

end of a long-time slumber

the days are already counted. The 2008 summer vacation in the Philippines is drawing to a close with the start of another school year by the tenth of June, some, at the 16th.

I wouldn't really mind it to ever end, had it not my last summer vacation as a student. I'm one step closer to being a professional educator because now I only need to endure the burden entailed by my course for about ten months, and presto, the diploma will be mine.

Right now, I can't quite figure out how my life would be like once I was released by the educational institution to the wilderness of the real world. The feeling is similar to a scenario like when you're taking an ideal bath, covered with bubbly soap and enveloped by lukewarm water then suddenly you're grandmother knocks on the door to demand that she really have to release that grueling tempest or else your house will suffer the fragrance of her poop. It's like you're stuck on a crossroad dwelling on a bittersweet situation, unable to decide whether you should go or not, thinking that no matter what you do, it will eventually strike naturally as expected.

I don't feel even a nick of excitement for it, but instead, grudge over a life i'm quite uncertain if i've spent befittingly. I hope time will not come that I regret anything I've left behind. And I'm certain there's too many.

Should I proceed? But of course, I should, right? But would I ever succeed? Now that's the big question. I don't know if I should really rely on the old adage that contends that destiny is not a matter of chance, but a matter of choice. It is something not to be taken but it's to be achieved. This makes me so much puzzled and anxious about the future.

I consider my childhood and teenage life as a long slumber to gain the right amount of energy necessary for an adult life labeled with success and happiness. My long sleep, I guess isn't sufficient yet to earn me a good adulthood, but I expect to grow on the process. By the way, they say life starts at 40. Right now, I'm half-way to that age. Hence, a great number of experiences is still piling up ahead until that time comes.

Bahala na si batman.